Uncertainties in models of tropospheric ozone based on Monte Carlo analysis: Tropospheric ozone burdens, atmospheric lifetimes and surface distributions

Recognising that global tropospheric ozone models have many uncertain input parameters, an attempt has been made to employ Monte Carlo sampling to quantify the uncertainties in model output that arise from global tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and from ozone production and destruction in a global Lagrangian chemistry-transport model. Ninetyeight quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs were completed and the uncertainties were quantified in tropospheric burdens and lifetimes of ozone, carbon monoxide and methane, together with the surface distribution and seasonal cycle in ozone. The results have shown a satisfactory degree of convergence and provide a first estimate of the likely uncertainties in tropospheric ozone model outputs. There are likely to be diminishing returns in carrying out many more Monte Carlo runs in order to refine further these outputs. Uncertainties due to model formulation were separately addressed using the results from 14 Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) chemistry-climate models. The 95% confidence ranges surrounding the ACCMIP model burdens and lifetimes for ozone, carbon monoxide and methane were somewhat smaller than for the Monte Carlo estimates. This reflected the situation where the ACCMIP models used harmonised emissions data and differed only in their meteorological data and model formulations whereas a conscious effort was made to describe the uncertainties in the ozone precursor emissions and in the kinetic and photochemical data in the Monte Carlo runs. Attention was focussed on the model predictions of the ozone seasonal cycles at three marine boundary layer stations: Mace Head, Ireland, Trinidad Head, California and Cape Grim, Tasmania. Despite comprehensively addressing the uncertainties due to global emissions and ozone sources and sinks, none of the Monte Carlo runs were able to generate seasonal cycles that matched the observations at all three MBL stations. Although the observed seasonal cycles were found to fall within the confidence limits of the ACCMIP members, this was because the model seasonal cycles spanned extremely wide ranges and there was no single ACCMIP member that performed best for each station. Further work is required to examine the parameterisation of convective mixing in the models to see if this erodes the isolation of the marine boundary layer from the free troposphere and thus hides the models' real ability to reproduce ozone seasonal cycles over marine stations

The Global Atmosphere Watch reactive gases measurement network

Long-term observations of reactive gases in the troposphere are important for understanding trace gas cycles and the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, assessing impacts of emission changes, verifying numerical model simulations, and quantifying the interactions between short-lived compounds and climate change. The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) program coordinates a global network of surface stations some of which have measured reactive gases for more than 40 years. Gas species included under this umbrella are ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). There are many challenges involved in setting-up and maintaining such a network over many decades and to ensure that data are of high quality, regularly updated and made easily accessible to users. This overview describes the GAW surface station network of reactive gases, its unique quality management framework, and discusses the data that are available from the central archive. Highlights of data use from the published literature are reviewed, and a brief outlook into the future of GAW is given. This manuscript constitutes the overview of a special feature on GAW reactive gases observations with individual papers reporting on research and data analysis of particular substances being covered by the program. - See more at: http://elementascience.org/article/info:doi/10.12952/journal.elementa.000067#sthash.cHvHu0T6.dpu

Crop Updates 2005 - Farming Systems

This session covers forty four papers from different authors: PLENARY 1. 2005 Outlook, David Stephens and Nicola Telcik, Department of Agriculture FERTILITY AND NUTRITION 2. The effect of higher nitrogen fertiliser prices on rotation and fertiliser strategies in cropping systems, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture and University of Western Australia 3. Stubble management: The short and long term implications for crop nutrition and soil fertility, Wayne Pluske, Nutrient Management Systems and Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture 4. Stubble management: The pros and cons of different methods, Bill Bowden, Department of Agriculture, Western Australia and Mike Collins, WANTFA 5. Effect of stubble burning and seasonality on microbial processes and nutrient recycling, Frances Hoyle, The University of Western Australia 6. Soil biology and crop production in Western Australian farming systems, D.V. Murphy, N. Milton, M. Osman, F.C. Hoyle, L.K Abbott, W.R. Cookson and S. Darmawanto, The University of Western Australia 7. Urea is as effective as CAN when no rain for 10 days, Bill Crabtree, Crabtree Agricultural Consulting 8. Fertiliser (N,P,S,K) and lime requirements for wheat production in the Merredin district, Geoff Anderson, Department of Agriculture and Darren Kidson, Summit Fertilizers 9. Trace element applications: Up-front verses foliar? Bill Bowden and Ross Brennan, Department of Agriculture 10. Fertcare®, Environmental Product Stewardship and Advisor Standards for thee Fertiliser Industry, Nick Drew, Fertilizer Industry Federation of Australia (FIFA) SOIL AND LAND MANAGEMENT 11. Species response to row spacing, density and nutrition, Bill Bowden, Craig Scanlan, Lisa Sherriff, Bob French and Reg Lunt, Department of Agriculture 12. Investigation into the influence of row orientation in lupin crops, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture and Angie Roe, Farm Focus Consultants 13. Deriving variable rate management zones for crops, Ian Maling, Silverfox Solutions and Matthew Adams, DLI 14. In a world of Precision Agriculture, weigh trailers are not passé, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture 15. Cover crop management to combat ryegrass resistance and improve yields, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture and Angie Roe, Farm Focus Consultants 16. ARGT home page, the place to find information on annual ryegrass toxicity on the web, Dr George Yan, BART Pty Ltd 17. Shallow leading tine (SLT) ripper significantly reduces draft force, improves soil tilth and allows even distribution of subsoil ameliorants, Mohammad Hamza, Glen Riethmuller and Wal Anderson, Department of Agriculture PASTURE ANS SUMMER CROP SYSTEMS 18. New annual pasture legumes for Mediteranean farming systems, Angelo Loi, Phil Nichols, Clinton Revell and David Ferris, Department of Agriculture 19. How sustainable are phase rotations with Lucerne? Phil Ward, CSIRO Plant Industry 20. Management practicalities of summer cropping, Andrea Hills and Sally-Anne Penny, Department of Agriculture 21. Rainfall zone determines the effect of summer crops on winter yields, Andrea Hills, Sally-Anne Penny and David Hall, Department of Agriculture 22. Summer crops and water use, Andrea Hills, Sally-Anne Penny and David Hall, Department of Agriculture, and Michael Robertson and Don Gaydon, CSIRO Brisbane 23. Risk analysis of sorgum cropping, Andrea Hills and Sally-Anne Penny, Department of Agriculture, and Dr Michael Robertson and Don Gaydon, CSIRO Brisbane FARMER DECISION SUPPORT AND ADOPTION 24. Variety release and End Point Royalties – a new system? Tress Walmsley, Department of Agriculture 25. Farming system analaysis using the STEP Tool, Caroline Peek and Megan Abrahams, Department of Agriculture 26. The Leakage Calculator: A simple tool for groundwater recharge assessment, Paul Raper, Department of Agriculture 27. The cost of Salinity Calculator – your tool to assessing the profitability of salinity management options, Richard O’Donnell and Trevor Lacey, Department of Agriculture 28. Climate decision support tools, Meredith Fairbanks and David Tennant, Department of Agriculture 29. Horses for courses – using the best tools to manage climate risk, Cameron Weeks, Mingenew-Irwin Group/Planfarm and Richard Quinlan, Planfarm Agronomy 30. Use of seasonal outlook for making N decisions in Merredin, Meredith Fairbanks and Alexandra Edward, Department of Agriculture 31. Forecasts and profits, Benefits or bulldust? Chris Carter and Doug Hamilton, Department of Agriculture 32. A tool to estimate fixed and variable header and tractor depreciation costs, Peter Tozer, Department of Agriculture 33. Partners in grain: ‘Putting new faces in new places’, Renaye Horne, Department of Agriculture 34. Results from the Grower group Alliance, Tracey Gianatti, Grower Group Alliance 35. Local Farmer Group Network – farming systems research opportunities through local groups, Paul Carmody, Local Farmer Group Network GREENHOUSE GAS AND CLIMATE CHANGE 36. Changing rainfall patterns in the grainbelt, Ian Foster, Department of Agriculture 37. Vulnerability of broadscale agriculture to the impacts of climate change, Michele John, CSIRO (formerly Department of Agriculture) and Ross George, Department of Agriculture 38. Impacts of climate change on wheat yield at Merredin, Imma Farré and Ian Foster, Department of Agriculture 39. Climate change, land use suitability and water security, Ian Kininmonth, Dennis van Gool and Neil Coles, Department of Agriculture 40. Nitrous oxide emissions from cropping systems, Bill Porter, Department of Agriculture, Louise Barton, University of Western Australia 41. The potential of greenhouse sinks to underwrite improved land management in Western Australia, Richard Harper and Peter Ritson, CRC for Greenhouse Accounting and Forest Products Commission, Tony Beck, Tony Beck Consulting Services, Chris Mitchell and Michael Hill, CRC for Greenhouse Accounting 42. Removing uncertainty from greenhouse emissions, Fiona Barker-Reid, Will Gates, Ken Wilson and Rob Baigent, Department of Primary Industries - Victoria and CRC for Greenhouse Accounting (CRCGA), and Ian Galbally, Mick Meyer and Ian Weeks, CSIRO Atmospheric Research and CRCGA 43. Greenhouse in Agriculture Program (GIA), Traci Griffin, CRC for Greenhouse Accounting 44. Grains Greenhouse Accounting framework, D. Rodriguez, M. Probust, M. Meyers, D. Chen, A. Bennett, W. Strong, R. Nussey, I. Galbally and M. Howden CONTACT DETAILS FOR PRINCIPAL AUTHOR

Reversal of Long-Term Trends in Ethane Identified from the Global Atmosphere Watch Reactive Gases Measurement Network

Reactive gases play an important role in climate and air pollution issues. They control the self-cleansing capability of the troposphere, contribute to air pollution and acid deposition, regulate the lifetimes and provide tracers for deciphering sources and sinks for greenhouse gases. Within GAW, the focus is placed on long-term, high-quality observations of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). More than 100 stations worldwide carry out reactive gases measurements with data reported to two World Data Centers. The reactive gases program in GAW cooperates The WMO GAW Reactive Gases Program with regional networks and other global monitoring initiatives in order to attain a complete picture of the tropospheric chemical composition. Observations are being made by in-situ monitoring, measurements from commercial routine air-crafts (e.g. IAGOS), column observations, and from flask sampling networks. Quality control and coordination of measurements between participating stations are a primary emphasis. GAW reactive gases data in rapid delivery mode are used to evaluate operational atmospheric composition forecasts in the EU Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service. Oversight of the program is provided by GAW-WMO coordinated Reactive Gases Scientific Advisory Committee (RG-SAG)

Characterizing Atmospheric Transport Pathways to Antarctica and the Remote Southern Ocean Using Radon-222

We discuss remote terrestrial influences on boundary layer air over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, and the mechanisms by which they arise, using atmospheric radon observations as a proxy. Our primary motivation was to enhance the scientific community’s ability to understand and quantify the potential effects of pollution, nutrient or pollen transport from distant land masses to these remote, sparsely instrumented regions. Seasonal radon characteristics are discussed at 6 stations (Macquarie Island, King Sejong, Neumayer, Dumont d’Urville, Jang Bogo and Dome Concordia) using 1–4 years of continuous observations. Context is provided for differences observed between these sites by Southern Ocean radon transects between 45 and 67°S made by the Research Vessel Investigator. Synoptic transport of continental air within the marine boundary layer (MBL) dominated radon seasonal cycles in the mid-Southern Ocean site (Macquarie Island). MBL synoptic transport, tropospheric injection, and Antarctic outflow all contributed to the seasonal cycle at the sub-Antarctic site (King Sejong). Tropospheric subsidence and injection events delivered terrestrially influenced air to the Southern Ocean MBL in the vicinity of the circumpolar trough (or “Polar Front”). Katabatic outflow events from Antarctica were observed to modify trace gas and aerosol characteristics of the MBL 100–200 km off the coast. Radon seasonal cycles at coastal Antarctic sites were dominated by a combination of local radon sources in summer and subsidence of terrestrially influenced tropospheric air, whereas those on the Antarctic Plateau were primarily controlled by tropospheric subsidence. Separate characterization of long-term marine and katabatic flow air masses at Dumont d’Urville revealed monthly mean differences in summer of up to 5 ppbv in ozone and 0.3 ng m-3 in gaseous elemental mercury. These differences were largely attributed to chemical processes on the Antarctic Plateau. A comparison of our observations with some Antarctic radon simulations by global climate models over the past two decades indicated that: (i) some models overestimate synoptic transport to Antarctica in the MBL, (ii) the seasonality of the Antarctic ice sheet needs to be better represented in models, (iii) coastal Antarctic radon sources need to be taken into account, and (iv) the underestimation of radon in subsiding tropospheric air needs to be investigated

Composition and chemistry of the atmosphere: selected publications (1968-2008)

In 1995 IUPAC (International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry) published a units and nomenclature guide for atmospheric chemistry (Schwartz and Warneck 1995). As well, the 1995 Nobel Prize for Chemistry was awarded to Paul Crutzen, Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland "for their work in atmospheric chemistry, particularly concerning the formation and decomposition of ozone". Atmospheric chemistry had come of age, as a field within the discipline of Chemistry. The Publications presented in this thesis cover the period 1968-2008, a period that witnessed the emergence and maturing of atmospheric chemistry as a scientific discipline. There appears to be no recent account of the historical development of atmospheric chemistry (as distinct from air pollution). Therefore, to provide the context for the work in the thesis, the development of knowledge about atmospheric composition and chemistry is briefly summarised in this Introduction. Reviews of the developments of the relevant areas of atmospheric composition and chemistry introduce each chapter

Composition and chemistry of the atmosphere: selected publications (1968-2008)

In 1995 IUPAC (International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry) published a units and nomenclature guide for atmospheric chemistry (Schwartz and Warneck 1995). As well, the 1995 Nobel Prize for Chemistry was awarded to Paul Crutzen, Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland "for their work in atmospheric chemistry, particularly concerning the formation and decomposition of ozone". Atmospheric chemistry had come of age, as a field within the discipline of Chemistry. The Publications presented in this thesis cover the period 1968-2008, a period that witnessed the emergence and maturing of atmospheric chemistry as a scientific discipline. There appears to be no recent account of the historical development of atmospheric chemistry (as distinct from air pollution). Therefore, to provide the context for the work in the thesis, the development of knowledge about atmospheric composition and chemistry is briefly summarised in this Introduction. Reviews of the developments of the relevant areas of atmospheric composition and chemistry introduce each chapter